There has been a lot of talk recently about whether or not Microsoft Windows has a future. Some of the conversation turns on the perceived lack of value in Windows Vista. Others contend that a "heavy" operating system, like Windows, is not needed by most corporate computer users. And industry pundits have criticized Microsoft for not having re-designed Windows Vista using a modular architecture.
So just how valuable is it to have a Windows operating system in order to take advantage of today's network-based Web applications and services? The answer is, not very. The size and complexity of Windows is working against it. And the ability of Microsoft to keep schlepping its legacy application baggage along has reached the breaking point. Windows Vista offers the corporate Windows user no compelling reasons to go through the expense and pain of upgrading from Windows XP. And in these tougher economic times, the prospect of deploying a Windows Vista upgrade is a non-starter when Linux and open source software alternatives can do the job for less.
Microsoft XP will be 7 years old this fall. Seven years is a long time for any Windows operating system to maintain its currency. Windows 95 and 98 were current for shorter times. Ditto for Windows 2000 and Windows 2003. Only Windows NT maintained its currency for the same reason Windows XP has survived. Both of them managed to find a sweet spot in corporate computing environments where it seemed just right.
But even if Windows XP was just right, it is showing its age and faces a questionable future after Microsoft discontinues its availability on new PCs after June. Emerging desktop virtualization technologies may give Windows XP a reprieve from retirement, but just how long are those Windows applications running on Windows XP going to be needed? Maybe longer than most people think, but then again, maybe not.
Today, the environment for delivering applications and data has shifted to the network and its servers and away from the desktop. In modern computing environments a Windows desktop becomes just another delivery appendage to a network's ability to present users with access to applications and data. Windows terminal servers and Windows desktop virtualization can extend the usefulness of Windows a bit longer because these technologies also reduce the management costs of Windows and allow organizations to contain their Windows and Windows application licensing expenses.
In the world of network computing, the future belongs to Linux and open source software. Linux can be stripped down and embedded into just about any electronic device. Novell just released SUSE Linux JeOS (Just enough Operating System) to developers who want to embed their applications in a minimal Linux environment. Red Hat is also working along similar lines.
For its part, Microsoft produced several embedded Windows versions over the years, but they missed the boat on the current movement of embedding just enough of the operating system with an application. Microsoft appears to have been too conservative and too focused on its "heavy" operating systems to take notice of what was happening around them. Score another win for the flexible Linux OS and the open source community.
For over 25 years Microsoft has been a successful marketer of expensive proprietary software. And over that time we know that nothing can fail like success. Another thing we know is Microsoft Windows has past the peak of its power and influence. We have reached "peak Windows" as more adaptable Linux-based open source technologies along with the Apple Mac begin to erode Microsoft's Windows empire.
The irrelevance of Windows is on the horizon, but it isn't here yet. A lot may depend on what Microsoft does or doesn't do with Windows 7. Those who don't care or can't afford to wait to find out are deploying Linux and open source software alternatives now.
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