Major shifts in computing can be influenced by economic events. Take the collapse of financial capitalism last September. The credit lockup that ensued doesn't look like it will end soon. The high-flying Wall Street investment banks that survived the crash have had their wings clipped. Risky banking and greedy investment practices have destroyed trust in the global financial system. The federal government is attempting to "defilibrate" an economy that appears increasingly lifeless. So what does an economy facing the material and energy limits to growth have to do with a shift in computing? The answer is a lot.
Past computing shifts included the change from batch processing to interactive computing (1970s), from mainframe and mini computing to microprocessor computing (1980s), from proprietary networking to standards-based networking (late 1980s), from stand-alone computing to client-server computing (early 1990s), from private networks to the Internet and the World Wide Web (mid 1990s). Each of these shifts changed the way we did computing.
The current computing shift is to virtualization of computing workloads, data storage and applications in cloud computing infrastructures. The new computing shift is also unstoppable. Why? Because in a economic decline that is going to re-define the way we live and work on an energy and material basis, the capital, maintenance, operation and real estate costs of premises-based computing workloads, data storage and applications will eventually become too expensive for most businesses and organizations.
When will the shift to cloud computing architectures dominate the IT landscape? A reasonable answer is that it will take the better part of a decade from where we are today. Amazon, Google, IBM, Microsoft and others are already or will soon be offering cloud services for computing workloads, data storage and applications. The "pay for what you use" model seems to be established in cloud computing, and that could change over time.
Cross-cloud compatibility will become essential. It is the "holy grail" of cloud computing. And towards that end an IBM research center in San Jose recently moved a computing workload around the Earth from one IBM cloud center to another and then from IBM's cloud to a private cloud. IBM may have been the first to demonstrate this particular cloud computing capability and it is an important one.
The financial and technical advantages of cloud computing will look attractive to businesses and organizations faced with cutting their premises-based IT costs. Paying for what you use in the cloud does not require large capital investments, which could be important in an economy with reduced credit availability and borrowing. The size of corporate and branch offices can be reduced as fewer people will need to commute to them in order to do their jobs. Technical advantages like the automated movement of computing workloads and data could help avoid the consequences of local natural disasters that frequently cause businesses to fail. Development projects can be migrated from cloud to cloud depending on where the developers are located. Data duplication to different geographically located cloud computing centers will offer even the smallest businesses a high level of data protection and redundancy.
It is interesting to note that a few years ago many people anticipated the arrival of what became known as Software as a Service (SaaS) and today you can subscribe to any number of SaaS products from vendors providing office suites, sales and customer management systems, financial accounting systems, voice and messaging systems all delivered as a service for which the customer pays by the month or annually. Cloud computing leverages the development of SaaS and creates a "mashup" of sorts with the virtualization of complete IT infrastructures running across a computing grid that can span the entire Earth.
Cloud computing will function well in a world economy more bound than ever before by material and energy constraints. If you are not paying attention you need to begin actively investigating how you can shift some or all of your IT infrastructure into the cloud.
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